Senator – Bob Schaffer (R) vs. Mark Udall (D)
Areas which Udall should carry include Alamosa, Aspen, Boulder, Denver, Durango, Gunnison, Pueblo, and Steamboat Springs. Schaffer should carry Castle Rock, Colorado Springs, Greeley, and the Eastern Plains of Colorado. Grand Junction should favor Schaffer, yet Fort Collins may likely go to Udall narrowly.
Outlook: Udall defeats Schaffer (Dem Gain)
Senator – Saxby Chambliss (R) vs. Jim Martin (D)
A late developing Senate race has placed Chambliss in an uncomfortable position. Republicans have limited funds and the inability to make a last minute expenditure on his behalf, whereas the Democrats have sufficient funds to assist Martin. Chambliss’s base is deserting him and moving toward Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley. Two issues have alienated conservatives from Chambliss: support for the bailout vote and perceived softening on illegal immigration. With half of the base deserted, Chambliss has to also overcome the Obama coattails which will benefit Martin. Statewide African-Americans make up 29% of the electorate. Women, a constituency favorable to Democrats, compose 52% of the electorate. Other issues which have hurt Chambliss include an explosion at a sugar refinery near Savannah, high foreclosures in the Atlanta area, and the recent summer gas supply crisis. Early returns should give a good idea as to whether or not Chambliss will survive. Atlanta and its immediate counties are normally the last to report returns, yet its suburbs, territory considered favorable to Chambliss, are normally the first. If Chambliss is under 60% in the counties north of Atlanta and those aligned with the Alabama border (north of Columbus), then the race will be called fairly quick.
Key counties to look for:
Bibb, Chatham, and Thomas (both candidates should be performing less than 5% apart in these counties).
Barrow, Bartow, Carroll, Catoosa, Cobb, Coweta, Douglas, Effingham, Fayette, Glynn, Gwinnett, Habersham, Houston, Paulding, Spalding, Troup, Walker, and Whitfield – Chambliss should be taking more than 58% of the vote in all of these counties.
Cherokee, Columbia, Dawson, Forsyth, Hall, and Walton – Chambliss should be taking more than 68% of the vote in all of these counties.
Strong counties for Martin will be: Clarke, Clayton, DeKalb, Dougherty, Fulton, Muscogee, and Richmond. These geographic areas are Albany, Athens, Atlanta (city), Augusta, and Columbus.
The Savannah area should be split with Chatham County favoring Martin and Effingham County favoring Chambliss. The Macon area should also be split, with Bibb County favoring Martin, yet Houston County favoring Chambliss. Counties to the south along the Florida border, including Valdosta, should favor Chambliss. Counties to the north, including Rome, should also favor him. If this scenario does not materialize, then Chambliss will not be re-elected.
Outlook: Martin defeats Chamliss (Dem Gain) or Chambliss fails to achieve 50%, forcing a runoff
Senator – Mitch McConnell (R) vs. Bruce Lunsford (D)
McConnell may have a war chest yet whether or not he can carry Kentucky remains to be seen. Strong turnout from Jefferson County, which favors Obama, will require strong turnout in favor of McConnell from rural areas in order to offset McConnell’s disadvantage in Louisville. Two areas of the state which McConnell cannot afford to lose are Eastern Kentucky (counties aligned with the West Virginia border) and Southwestern Kentucky (counties aligned with the Indiana border). McConnell does indeed have problems however. The areas he needs to carry have high rates of unemployment. In addition, Obama’s message of change is bleeding over into Kentucky from media markets in Cincinnati and Evansville. Obama may have a difficult task in carrying Kentucky, yet his message of change may convince voters that McConnell is part of their problems.
Key counties to look for on election night:
Boone, Campbell, and Kenton – These counties are closest to Cincinnati. McConnell must perform strong here and cannot allow Lunsford to carry any of these three counties.
Fayette, Muhlenberg, Marion, and Franklin – These counties are largely spread out around the Lexington and Louisville metro area. If Lunsford is performing ahead of McConnell in this area then McConnell is in serious jeopardy.
Breathitt, Elliott, Floyd, Knott, Magoffin, Morgan, Perry, Pike, and Wolfe – If these Eastern Kentucky counties turn favorable to Lunsford, then this race will be extremely close.
A repeat of the Bunning vs. Mongiardo race is in the making, yet expect a narrow loss for McConnell.
Outlook: Lunsford defeats McConnell (Dem Gain)
Senator – Norm Coleman (R) vs. Al Franken (D)
One of the most unusual races has been here. Most of the campaign had been focused on the personality of Franken and devoid of the issues. Now that the issues have taken center stage Franken’s numbers have approved. Coleman is being hurt more by the placement of Independent Dean Barkley on the ballot than Franken is being affected. A Libertarian and Conservative candidate only provide more avenues for disaffected Republicans. Late breaking news regarding Coleman’s wife can only mean doom since the electorate never seemed impressed with either Coleman or Franken.
Key counties where Franken must perform strong:
Northern Tier (including Duluth) – Aitkin, Beltrami, Carlton, Cook, Itasca, Koochiching, Lake, Pine, and Saint Louis counties. Amongst these nine counties are seven Indian Reservations, a constituency favorable to Democrats.
Minneapolis/Saint Paul – Hennepin and Ramsey counties.
College towns – Blue Earth, Rice, and Winona counties.
Iowa and Dakotas border counties – Big Stone, Chippewa, Fillmore, Freeborn, Lac Qui Parle, Mahnomen, Mower, Norman, Swift, and Yellow Medicine. These have been traditional Democratic areas.
Key counties where Coleman must perform strong:
Minneapolis/Saint Paul suburbs – Carver, Scott, Sherburne, and Wright counties. These are higher income counties, yet also a mix of moderate and conservative Republicans.
Southwestern Minnesota – This is largely agricultural and moderate Republicans.
Central Minnesota – This includes cities such as Alexandria, Brainerd, Cambridge, Fergus Falls, and Saint Cloud.
Decisive Areas:
Saint Paul to Rochester – This includes Anoka, Dakota, Goodhue, Olmsted, Wabasha, and Washington counties.
North Dakota border counties – An area extending from the South and North Dakota border north to Fargo.
Whomever carries these two areas will most likely win the seat.
Initially Franken did not look promising, yet Coleman’s incumbency and Obama coattails appear sufficient enough to give Franken a narrow edge.
Outlook: Franken defeats Coleman (Dem Gain)
Senator – Roger Wicker (R) vs. Ronnie Musgrove (D)
Mississippi has the third highest unemployment rate in the nation (Rhode Island and Michigan are higher). Statewide twenty-four counties have an unemployment rate over 10%. The lowest unemployment rate in the state is Rankin County (suburban Jackson) at 4.9%. A little more than one-third of the electorate here is African-American. The unusual ballot has somewhat of a disadvantage for Musgrove. The first Senate race lists the candidates and their party affiliation, yet the Wicker vs. Musgrove race does not identify the party for either candidate. Since the state lists candidates alphabetically by last name (ex: Cochran first, followed by Fleming) some voters may see Musgrove listed first and assume he’s a Republican since Cochran is listed first under the Republican column for his race. Should Democrats spend strongly in the final days and educate voters (as occurred in the race which made Childers victorious) then Musgrove has a chance in upsetting Wicker.
Musgrove must strongly carry the counties which he won in 2003: Adams, Benton, Bolivar, Chickasaw, Claiborne, Clay, Coahoma, Copiah, Hinds, Holmes, Humphreys, Issaquena, Jasper, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Kemper, Leflore, Marshall, Monroe, Noxubee, Panola, Pike, Prentiss, Quitman, Sharkey, Sunflower, Tallahatchie, Tunica, Washington, Wilkinson, and Yalobusha.
Wicker should perform strong in the following counties: DeSoto, Lamar, and Rankin counties.
The victor will be whomever carries the votes from Biloxi, Columbus, Hattiesburg, and Tupelo. Counties that Musgrove must target and perform competively include: Forrest, Hancock, Harrison, Jackson, Lauderdale, Lee, Lowndes, Newton, Oktibbeha, and Pearl River.
Part of the reason why Musgrove lost in 2004 is because he targeted African-American counties, yet largely ignored population centers, thereby winning the rural vote, but losing the more urban and suburban vote. This year Musgrove must concentrate on population centers, particularly the Biloxi and Gulfport area. However, while I hope for luck that Musgrove prevails, the confusion of the ballot may leave many Democrats who want Musgrove voting for Wicker.
Outlook: Wicker defeats Musgrove
Senator – Elizabeth Dole (R) vs. Kay Hagan (D)
Desperate Libby Dole, behind in the polls, decided that the best way to end her career was to air a scathing “Godless” ad against her opponent. What Libby failed to realize is that early voting had already begun and a large number had already voted. In addition, areas around Charlotte and Raleigh have a large number of Northeastern transplants, where God is not an election issue. African-Americans, whom compose 22% of the electorate, are also unlikely to be motivated to vote against Hagan based on Dole’s ridiculous ad. Originally Dole wanted to run on the social issue platform: illegal immigration. However, when the economy tanked and newspapers statewide started questioning how much time Dole actually spent in the state, polling started to show Libby dropping fast.
Areas where Hagan should perform strong:
Asheville (Bucombe, Haywood, and Jackson counties), Charlotte (Mecklenbury County), Eastern Coast (including cities of Goldsboro, Greenville, Kinston, New Bern, Rocky Mount, and Wilson), Fayetteville, Greensboro (Guilford County), Jacksonville (Duplin and Jones counties), and Raleigh-Durham.
Areas where Dole should perform strong:
Asheville (Avery, Henderson, and Mitchell counties), Charlotte (Union County), Greensboro/Winston-Salem, and Hickory.
Areas which will determine the winner:
Asheville (counties west of Buncombe), Asheville to Hickory (counties between Asheville and Hickory), Charlotte (Cabarrus, Gaston, Lincoln, Rowan, and Stanly counties), Craven County, Currituck County, Fayetteville to Raleigh (Harnett and Johnston counties), Iredell County, Surry County, and Wilmington to Jacksonville (Brunswick, Carteret, New Hanover, Onslow, and Pender counties).
Whoever is winning in the counties listed above will eventually be the winner. Therefore, if returns show Hagan doing strong in Wilmington and suburban Charlotte, then expect a fast call against Dole.
Obama’s competiveness in the state, along with Dole’s failures, and massive turnout will spend the end of the North Carolina devil.
Outlook: Hagan defeats Dole (Dem Gain)
Senator – Gordon Smith (R) vs. Jeff Merkley (D)
A Republican falling into the arms of Obama is a rarity, yet Gordon Smith has been doing just that. Oregon is considered a Democratic state and strong turnout from Multnomah County alone is enough to tilt the race against Smith. State Represenative Jeff Merkley has been seeking to attach Smith with Merkley at every opportunity and it seems to be working. Early vote turnout means more here than election day turnout and it appears that Merkley has accomplished the early vote turnout. Here are areas to look for:
Areas favorable to Merkley:
Coastal – Clatsop, Columbia, Lincoln, and Tillamook counties.
Eugene/Coravlis – Benton and Lane counties.
Portland – Clackamas, Hood River, Multnomah, and Washington counties.
Areas favorable to Smith:
Southern Oregon (with the exception of Jackson County).
Western Oregon (with the exception of Jefferson, Deschutes, and Wasco counties).
The decisive areas will be:
Bend – Jefferson, Deschutes, and Wasco counties.
Medford – Jackson County.
Salem – Linn and Marion counties.
However, with strong Democratic turnout from Eugene and Portland, Democrats may have less of a necessity to rely on the decisive parts of the state.
Outlook: Merkley defeats Smith (Dem Gain)
Senator – Lindsey Graham (R) vs. Bob Conley (D)
Graham will likely lose Greenville County. Greenville is the radical right wing part of the state and the only county which he lost in the primary.
Outlook: Graham defeats Conley
Senator – John Cornyn (R) vs. Rick Noriega (D)
Oilman John Cornyn is running for re-election against a backdrop of horrible financial news. Normally he would be standing side by side with Bush, yet just not this year. Cornyn is facing State Representative Rick Noriega. The race will be close, yet just how close remains to be seen. Here’s a breakdown:
Strong areas for Noriega:
Beaumont (Jefferson County), Bexar County (San Antonio), Dallas County, El Paso County, Harris County (Houston), Southern Texas (area extending from Val Verde County to Nueces County, major cities include Brownsville, Corpus Christi, Laredo, and McAllen), and Travis County (Austin).
Strong areas for Cornyn:
Montgomery County, Dallas/Fort Worth (includes counties of Denton, Ellis, Hood, Johnson, Kaufman, and Parker), North Texas (area north of Dallas, including cities of Sherman and Wichita Falls) and the Texas Panhandle (area extending from Oklahoma border to San Angelo – major cities include Abilene, Amarillo, Lubbock, Midland, Odessa, and San Angelo).
Decisive areas:
Beaumont-Port Arthur (all surrounding counties except Jefferson County), Central Texas (area between Austin and Dallas, including the cities of Killeen, Temple, and Waco), Coastal Texas (area between Corpus Christi and Houston, including cities of Galveston and Victoria). Eastern Texas (includes cities of Longview, Lufkin, Nacogdoches, Texarkana, and Tyler), North Houston (includes cities of Bryan, College Station, and Huntsville), and Tarrant County (Fort Worth).
The decisive areas will offer a lot in terms of whether or not Cornyn actually prevails. Eastern Texas has a large African-American population and turnout should benefit Noriega. Central Texas, Coastal Texas, and North Houston have a growing Hispanic population and Tarrant County can deliver both African-American and Hispanic votes for Noriega.
While Noriega does have an outside chance of an upset it is a climb. Cornyn has a massive war chest, yet Democrats may find themselves disappointed that they did not target Cornyn in less expensive markets here (Abilene, Amarillo, Beaumont, Corpus Christi, Victoria, Lubbock, Waco, and Wichita Falls).
Outlook: Cornyn defeats Noriega